To some, global warming may be only hot air
V,hüe most environmental and
atmospheric scientists say there is little
time left to respond to the tllreat of
global warnung and rising sea levels, a
minority of policy makers and re-
searchers say the data are far too in-
conclusive to justify such alarmist
predictions _
Atmospheric d}namics are so
complex and scientific knowledge so
incomplete, they say, as to defy accu-
rate predictions of clinlate change by
computer models that attempt to play
out the trends m existing data. And
while few dispute that humanity is
generating geometrically Increasing
quantities of "greenhouse gases" such
as carbon dioxide, some say their ef-
fects are so poorly understood that it is
wrong to conclude we are facing a
planetary environmental crisis _
In the absence of what he called
"more convincing data" about global
warming, US Energy Secretary
James Watkins said in a recent Inter-
view that it would be foolhardy for
the United States to implement dra
matic reductions in fossil-fuel bum
Conceding that the data do indi
cate some mpendmg changes in cli-
mate pattems, Watkins said "the pre-
sent state of scientific uncenainty'
does not provide conclusive evidence
that such change WIII be rapid or cata-
strophic. Asked why the United States
is not discussing a crash program to
switch to renewable energy sources,
he responded "Can •ya.u
imagine what that would cost, espe-
Clally since the scientists aren't really
sure of what's gomg on?"
Several researchers, including
Robelt C Balling Jr_, director of the
Office of Climatology at Arizona State
University, said in Interviews that
global wamung is more "media hype"
than anything else
Ballmg, one of a handful of scien
tists who have publicly dismissed
concerns about global climate change,
agrees that greenhouse gases are
concentratmg in the upper atmosphere
at a rapid pace, but he said there is no
evidence they will produce anything
other than minimal warming of
perhaps 1 degree Celsius (1 8 degrees
Fahrenheit). That, he said, could have
beneficial effects.
Although greenhouse gases have
increased by 50 percent m the last
century, he said, "all we see is that
the weather has become cloudier. "
'Night temperatures have
while daytime temperatures have fal-
len, and the world is getting somewhat
wetter," he said, noting that the
historical temperature record indicates
a wanning of only one-half degree
over the past century.
Ballmg believes that saturation of
the upper atmosphere by carbon
dioxide will have negligible effects on
global tenveratures, and that efforts
by developed countries to linut green-
house gas emissions would be equally
inconsequential.
"We're looking at the doubling of
the Earth's population by 2030, which
means there's no hope of even slightly
reducing carbon dioxide emissions by
thei* said Balling "Any emission re-
ductions will have zero effect unless
we curb population growth." In 40
years, he said, China alone will burn
about 50 percent more coal.
Sunilarly, S. Fred Singer, a phys-
ics professor at the University of Vir-
ginla, wrote recently that "the scienti-
fic base for an enhanced greenhouse
warming is too uncertain to justify
drastic action at this time " A rise of 1
'The scientific base
for an enhanced
greenhouse warming
... is too uncenain to
justify drastic action
at this time.'
S FRED SNGER
Physics professor
degree Celsius in average tempera
tures, he said, would result m longer
growing seasons, fewer frosts, the
northward expansion of agricultural
land and no increase m evaporation of
water from agricultural soil. Singer
said dramatic countermeasures
posed by environmentalists are "sure
to stifle economic grouth and reduce
human welfare. "
His position is echoed by Mumay
Weidenbaum, head of former Presi-
dent Reagan's Council of Economic
"The doomsayers have no monop-
Oly on the Butb" Weldenbaum said in
a recent interview.
Weidenbaum, who now heads flie
St. Lours-based Center for the Study
of American Busmess, says the belief
that pollution and atmospheric buildup
of carbon dioxide is Increasmg
geometrically "mms counter to any
science I've seen. "
However, these voices are
increasingly in the mmority_ And as
evidence has accumulated, the tide of
the debate has sumng Increasingly
toward those who believe that the
Earth's ability to withstand
untrammelled human activity has
reached the breakmg pomt_
DT. Stephen Schneider, a leading
atmosphenc researcher with the Na-
tional Center for Atmospheric Re-
search in Boulder, Colo., said recently,
"It IS journalistically irresponsible to
present both sides as though it were a
question of balance. Given the
distribution of views, with groups like
the National Academy of Science ex-
pressmg strong scientific it is
irresponsiMe to give equal time to a
few people standing out in let field. "
Sen. A1 Gore (D-Tenm) conceded
diat uncatainties about atmosphenc
interactions make it i_mpossible to
forecast specific phases of climate
change But, he addecl "the 01..•era11
weight of evidence" of global warming
"is so clear that one begins to feel angry
toward those who exaggerate the
uncertamty. "
ROSS GELBSPAN
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